The central bank released financial data in February, and US stocks slumped on the edge of technical bear market

The central bank released three financial data in February yesterday: China's new RMB loans in February amounted to 905.7 billion yuan, with an expected value of 1196 billion yuan and a previous value of 3340 billion yuan; the new RMB loans in the first two months amounted to 4.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 130.8 billion yuan year on year. In February, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, expected to be 8.5%, and the previous value was 8.4%. In February, the increment of social financing scale was 855.4 billion yuan, the market expected 1875 billion yuan, and the previous value was 5067.4 billion yuan; in the first two months, the accumulative increment of social financing scale was 5.92 trillion yuan, 271.7 billion yuan more than the same period of last year.
Interpretation of Hongtai wealth Research Department
The year-on-year growth rate of M2 rose 0.4 percentage points to 8.8% compared with that in January. The reason for the rebound is that on the one hand, it was affected by the low base of last Spring Festival, on the other hand, it was affected by the counter cyclical policy of February against the impact of the epidemic. The increase of financial expenditure and the support of various re loan policies all played a role in boosting the growth of M2.
The main reason is that the growth rate of social finance is lower than expected, and the government bond is lower than the market observation value due to the influence of statistical methods. At the level of government financing, the central bank counts the government bonds of China bond depository, so that the local bonds concentrated in the last week in February are not included in the data of that month.
In terms of credit, the financing demand of real enterprises is weak, and it mainly relies on short-term credit policies during the epidemic period. In February, RMB loans increased by 905.7 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9 billion yuan year on year. Among them, the new short-term loans of the enterprise sector reached 654.9 billion yuan, an increase of more than 500 billion yuan over the same period last year. The proportion of new short-term loans to new corporate loans increased from 27% in January to 58%, and the proportion of new medium and long-term loans fell from 58% to 37%.
The short-term, medium-term and long-term loan cycle of the residential sector all fell sharply year on year. The short-term loans of residents are mainly reflected in consumer loans, and the medium-term and long-term loans are reflected in housing loans. In February, the consumption activities were restrained under the home isolation, and the real estate transaction fell into a freezing point, resulting in the decline of both loan data.
It is expected that in March, with the acceleration of the resumption of work and production, the real economic activities will gradually resume, and the demand for corporate financing will further increase; at the same time, the issuance of local special bonds will be accelerated, which will be included in the government bonds at the end of February, and social financing is expected to pick up significantly in March.
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